Pretty unfortunately, the previous update in April 2022 marked a local top for my portfolio. Since then, the portfolio is down by a record 6-digit amount.
After almost 15 years monitoring the market, this macro environment is definitely a new experience for me. Rapidly increasing Fed rates in a high inflation environment. >5% mortgage rates will be an eye-opener for me if it happens in Singapore.
Almost all assets (with the exception of energy stocks) are down. There seems to be no hiding place for “long only” investors like me. Even for assets that are supposed to be inflation hedges like bitcoin and gold, it has not been a pretty picture. All underperforming significantly against cash, not to mention inflation.
I guess what’s happening is that people on the street are selling assets in order to pay for their expenses that has increased by >20%. Yours truly actually called out Hawker Chan in the previous post before the viral Mothership article.
Here’s the 15HWW Investment Portfolio:
Annualised Return: 6.4% p.a. (Nov 2010 to Jul 2022)
The annualised return suffered a pretty massive 2% drop from the previous update. A decade of decent performance could not save the bad decision of not taking almost any profits at all.
The HK and SG stocks were much more resilient for the past quarter but even stuff like DBS declined by almost 20% from 3 months ago.
US tech stocks were hammered pretty badly and in fact, Amazon even dropped out of my top 20 list. Disney has also turned into a red position having given up all its 2021 gains.
Right now, almost half of the stocks in the list has turned red.
Erm, this is all temporary, right? The market goes up in the long run, right?
Here’s the 15HWW Permanent Portfolio:
Annualised Return: 4.8% p.a. (Jan 2017 to Jul 2022)
Everything went down pretty significantly in this “defensive” sub-portfolio and we are down $20k from a quarter ago.
STI ETF performed the best relatively, dropping by less than 10%. Gold declined by 10% and then Berk B suffered a 20% drop, not to mention Bitcoin’s 50% crash. Mind you, these are not annualised returns, just performance compared to April 2022.
The silver lining is that during the great crypto liquidation about a month ago, I was fudded out of most of my stablecoins and converted my USDC to a mix of BTC and ETH near the bottom. Some of these paper gains helped to offset just a tiny bit of the overall paper losses.
The annualised return since inception decreased by more than 2% and we are now barely beating CPF SA returns.
Till the next quarterly update. Thanks for reading!
