Are We Already In WWIII?

This news article from CNA is pretty disturbing., especially the headline, grouping Ukraine with Taiwan. From something as mainstream as CNA. Maybe on hindsight, this period would be parallel to the late 30s almost a hundred years ago.

If it is not obvious already, it’s US + Europe vs China + Russia. That is basically the majority of the northern hemisphere where things matter. 60% of GDP and maybe 80% of military capability. There is a reason Xmas is in Dec and not June. So if things blow up, effectively, the World will be in conflict.

The theatre of violence is likely to be on two fronts, Eastern Europe (already happening) and the Pacific (potentially Taiwan/Korea) as the China/Russia alliance seeks to increase their geographical buffer zone and also challenge the US/Western hegemony.

If you think about it, what are the characteristics of war? Besides fighting and deaths (the most tragic), curtailed freedom and rationing/shortages come to mind. Maybe COVID-19 is just a prelude to what comes next.

What’s worst than high inflation? Probably shortages and then rationing. It has already started in Europe. If bracing for winter without heating is not a form of rationing, I don’t know what is. Closer to home, we have also realised that fresh chickens is a want, not a need.

But what can we do that is within our control? Not much actually. As average citizens, your fate really depends on the flag on your passport. As a Singaporean, I already think my odds of being mobilised is infinitely lower than let’s say if I were a Taiwanese or Korean.

If food is a concern, then get ready for Armageddon and you probably need to buy a baseball bat as a weapon as well.

However, if there are critical electronics that needs replacing, like a fridge, air con unit or even laptops, it’s probably good to do it asap before the shortages really begin. Companies and shops have inventory and the supply chain disruption might not have hit them (yet).

There’s really not much downside. At worst, you just get to enjoy the new items earlier and skip the extra GST.

It’s ok to brush me off as fear-mongering as I sincerely do hope that I am wrong, China-Russia steps back, we go back to the geopolitical vibes a decade ago and all risk assets resume up only.

Every dutiful parent hopes that their child gets to enjoy a better standard of living than them and I am no different.

Thanks for reading.